李哲源,庞景春,尤梅

• 1:河南大学数学与统计学院

摘要(Abstract)：

小麦作为我国的重要口粮，对保障国家粮食安全有重大战略意义.温度是小麦生长的关键气象要素，研究气温对小麦产量的影响，对制定生产策略、提高粮食产量极具参考价值.聚焦我国冬小麦的主产区——黄淮冬麦区，以2011-2021年间种植在河南、河北、山东、安徽4省57市的冬小麦为研究对象，以各地、各年的小麦单位面积产量和小麦在越冬前、后2个时期所经历的日均气温为研究变量，将气温外的其他地域因素归并为随机效应，建立带随机效应的、单产对两个阶段的气温密度函数的加性函数型回归模型.模型的诊断说明模型具备科学、有效的统计意义，随机效应和越冬前、后的气温均对小麦单产有显著影响，分别解释了66.2%、12.2%和15.8%的单产差异，模型总解释度达94.2%.模型的估计结果表明：(1)越冬前的气温权重函数为“S型”曲线，其右上方拐点所对应的20℃为小麦生育的最适气温；(2)越冬后的气温权重函数为“倒U型”曲线，其峰值所对应的12℃为小麦生育的最适气温.结合新一季生产中的气温观测，该模型亦可为预测小麦产量提供依据.

关键词(KeyWords)： 黄淮冬麦区;函数型回归模型;加性模型;随机效应;气温密度函数;气温权重函数;最适气温;产量预测

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 教育部首届博士后海外人才引进专项资助;; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(12001166)

作者(Author): 李哲源,庞景春,尤梅

DOI: 10.15991/j.cnki.411100.2024.05.010

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